Peer-Reviewed Articles and Chapters
“Sanctions as a Deterrent to Nuclear Testing.” With Matt Bowen and Richard Nephew. Nonproliferation Review, Forthcoming.
“The Rise of the Autocratic Nuclear Marketplace.” With Tristan Volpe. Journal of Strategic Studies, Forthcoming.
"No Kin in the Game? Moral Hazard and War in the U.S. Congress.” With Eoin McGuirk and Nathaniel Hilger. Journal of Political Economy, Forthcoming.
“The Limits of Nuclear Learning in the New Nuclear Age." With Mark Bell. In The Fragile Balance of Terror, Vipin Narang and Scott Sagan, eds. (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 2023), 209-229.
"Learning to Predict Proliferation." International Organization 76, No. 2 (2022): 487-507.
“Rival Hierarchies and the Origins of Nuclear Technology Sharing.” With Jeff Colgan. International Studies Quarterly 63, No. 2 (2019): 310-321.
"Red Lines in Nuclear Nonproliferation." With Dan Altman. Nonproliferation Review 24, No. 3-4 (2018): 315-342.
"North Korea Defied the Theoretical Odds: What Can We Learn from its Successful Nuclearization?" With Vipin Narang. Texas National Security Review 1, No. 2 (2018): 58-75.
"Why Nuclear Energy Programs Rarely Lead to Proliferation." International Security 42, No. 2 (2017): 40-77.
"Keeping the Bombs in the Basement: U.S. Nonproliferation Policy toward Israel, South Africa, and Pakistan." With Or Rabinowitz. International Security 40, No. 1 (2015): 47-86.
"Questioning the Effect of Nuclear Weapons on Conflict." With Mark Bell. Journal of Conflict Resolution 59, No. 1 (2015): 74-92.
"The Secret Success of Nonproliferation Sanctions." International Organization 68, No. 4 (2014): 913-944.
"Political Devolution and Resistance to Foreign Rule: A Natural Experiment." With Jeremy Ferwerda. American Political Science Review 108, No. 3 (2014): 642-660. Data. Supplementary Appendix.
"Nuclear Dominoes: A Self-Defeating Prophecy?" Security Studies 23, No. 1 (2014): 33-73.
Essays/Op-Eds
"Ukraine Won’t Ignite a Nuclear Scramble.” With Eric Brewer and Tristan Volpe. Foreign Affairs, November 17, 2022.
"The Rewards of Rivalry: US-China Competition Can Spur Climate Progress.” With Jeff Colgan. Foreign Affairs 101, No. 6 (November/December 2022).
“Why the War in Ukraine Won’t Spark a Nuclear Proliferation Cascade." Foreign Policy, October 17, 2022.
"A Redline for Iran?" With Eric Brewer. Foreign Affairs, December 23, 2021.
"Why We Should Hope for a JCPOA Revival." Divided We Fall, December 16, 2021.
"Iran’s Nuclear Program Won’t be Stopped by the Recent Explosion. But the Attack Puts Pressure on Negotiators.” Washington Post/Monkey Cage, April 20, 2021.
"The Lessons of the Past Point to Rejoining the Iran Deal." War on the Rocks, January 21, 2021.
“Trump is Still Pushing for a New Nuclear Deal with Iran. How Likely is That?” Washington Post/Monkey Cage,
January 15, 2020.
“Is a New Nuclear Age Upon Us? Why We May Look Back on 2019 as the Point of No Return.” With Vipin Narang. Foreign Affairs, December 30, 2019.
“Maximum Pressure is Failing: Fact-Checking Pompeo on Iran,” War on the Rocks, August 15, 2019.
"Admit it: Trump's Iran Policy is Failing." New York Daily News, July 9, 2019.
“The Eroding Value of Nonproliferation Sanctions,” Center for a New American Security, June 10, 2019.
"The Year of Living Dangerously with Nuclear Weapons: Three Nuclear Crises Washington Could Face in 2019." With Vipin Narang. Foreign Affairs, January 11, 2019.
"The Trump Administration's New 'Iran Action Group' Won't Work—For These 3 Reasons." Washington Post/Monkey Cage, August 29, 2018.
“Abstinence or Tolerance? Managing Nuclear Ambitions in Saudi Arabia.” With Tristan Volpe. Washington Quarterly 41, No. 2 (2018): 27-46.
"Trump Wants to Wring a 'Better Deal' From Iran. Here's Why That's So Unlikely." Washington Post/Monkey Cage, May 8, 2018.
"North Korea and the Problem of Managing Emerging Nuclear Powers." Lawfare, March 25, 2018.
"Geostrategic Nuclear Exports: The Competition for Influence in Saudi Arabia." With Tristan Volpe. War on the Rocks, February 7, 2018.
"What's Really Behind Tom Cotton's Opposition to the Iran Deal." War on the Rocks, October 11, 2017.
"Trump's Criticism of the Iran Deal May Only Lead to More Nuclear Weapons." Washington Post/Monkey Cage, September 25, 2017.
"How North Korea Shocked the Nuclear Experts." With Vipin Narang, Politico Magazine, August 26, 2017.
“Donald Trump Thinks More Countries Should Have Nuclear Weapons. Here’s What the Research Says.” With Gene Gerzhoy, Washington Post/Monkey Cage, April 6, 2016.
"Debunked: Why 5 Criticisms of the Iran Deal Are Wrong." The National Interest, August 12, 2015.
"Why the Iran Deal is a Logical Extension of U.S. Nonproliferation Policy." With Or Rabinowitz, Washington Post/Monkey Cage, April 21, 2015.
"U.S. Nonproliferation Policy is an Invisible Success Story." Washington Post/Monkey Cage, October 16, 2014.
“Primed to Protest.” With Chad Hazlett. ForeignPolicy.com, September 26, 2012.
"Correspondence: What Makes Terrorists Tick." With Erica Chenoweth and Elizabeth McClellan. International Security 33, No. 4 (2009): 180-202.
“Sanctions as a Deterrent to Nuclear Testing.” With Matt Bowen and Richard Nephew. Nonproliferation Review, Forthcoming.
“The Rise of the Autocratic Nuclear Marketplace.” With Tristan Volpe. Journal of Strategic Studies, Forthcoming.
"No Kin in the Game? Moral Hazard and War in the U.S. Congress.” With Eoin McGuirk and Nathaniel Hilger. Journal of Political Economy, Forthcoming.
“The Limits of Nuclear Learning in the New Nuclear Age." With Mark Bell. In The Fragile Balance of Terror, Vipin Narang and Scott Sagan, eds. (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 2023), 209-229.
"Learning to Predict Proliferation." International Organization 76, No. 2 (2022): 487-507.
“Rival Hierarchies and the Origins of Nuclear Technology Sharing.” With Jeff Colgan. International Studies Quarterly 63, No. 2 (2019): 310-321.
"Red Lines in Nuclear Nonproliferation." With Dan Altman. Nonproliferation Review 24, No. 3-4 (2018): 315-342.
"North Korea Defied the Theoretical Odds: What Can We Learn from its Successful Nuclearization?" With Vipin Narang. Texas National Security Review 1, No. 2 (2018): 58-75.
"Why Nuclear Energy Programs Rarely Lead to Proliferation." International Security 42, No. 2 (2017): 40-77.
"Keeping the Bombs in the Basement: U.S. Nonproliferation Policy toward Israel, South Africa, and Pakistan." With Or Rabinowitz. International Security 40, No. 1 (2015): 47-86.
"Questioning the Effect of Nuclear Weapons on Conflict." With Mark Bell. Journal of Conflict Resolution 59, No. 1 (2015): 74-92.
- Also see discussions of the article at Poli Sci Replication, Dart-Throwing Chimp, The Smoke-Filled Room, R-Bloggers, and LSE Impact of Social Sciences
"The Secret Success of Nonproliferation Sanctions." International Organization 68, No. 4 (2014): 913-944.
"Political Devolution and Resistance to Foreign Rule: A Natural Experiment." With Jeremy Ferwerda. American Political Science Review 108, No. 3 (2014): 642-660. Data. Supplementary Appendix.
"Nuclear Dominoes: A Self-Defeating Prophecy?" Security Studies 23, No. 1 (2014): 33-73.
Essays/Op-Eds
"Ukraine Won’t Ignite a Nuclear Scramble.” With Eric Brewer and Tristan Volpe. Foreign Affairs, November 17, 2022.
"The Rewards of Rivalry: US-China Competition Can Spur Climate Progress.” With Jeff Colgan. Foreign Affairs 101, No. 6 (November/December 2022).
“Why the War in Ukraine Won’t Spark a Nuclear Proliferation Cascade." Foreign Policy, October 17, 2022.
"A Redline for Iran?" With Eric Brewer. Foreign Affairs, December 23, 2021.
"Why We Should Hope for a JCPOA Revival." Divided We Fall, December 16, 2021.
"Iran’s Nuclear Program Won’t be Stopped by the Recent Explosion. But the Attack Puts Pressure on Negotiators.” Washington Post/Monkey Cage, April 20, 2021.
"The Lessons of the Past Point to Rejoining the Iran Deal." War on the Rocks, January 21, 2021.
“Trump is Still Pushing for a New Nuclear Deal with Iran. How Likely is That?” Washington Post/Monkey Cage,
January 15, 2020.
“Is a New Nuclear Age Upon Us? Why We May Look Back on 2019 as the Point of No Return.” With Vipin Narang. Foreign Affairs, December 30, 2019.
“Maximum Pressure is Failing: Fact-Checking Pompeo on Iran,” War on the Rocks, August 15, 2019.
"Admit it: Trump's Iran Policy is Failing." New York Daily News, July 9, 2019.
“The Eroding Value of Nonproliferation Sanctions,” Center for a New American Security, June 10, 2019.
"The Year of Living Dangerously with Nuclear Weapons: Three Nuclear Crises Washington Could Face in 2019." With Vipin Narang. Foreign Affairs, January 11, 2019.
"The Trump Administration's New 'Iran Action Group' Won't Work—For These 3 Reasons." Washington Post/Monkey Cage, August 29, 2018.
“Abstinence or Tolerance? Managing Nuclear Ambitions in Saudi Arabia.” With Tristan Volpe. Washington Quarterly 41, No. 2 (2018): 27-46.
"Trump Wants to Wring a 'Better Deal' From Iran. Here's Why That's So Unlikely." Washington Post/Monkey Cage, May 8, 2018.
"North Korea and the Problem of Managing Emerging Nuclear Powers." Lawfare, March 25, 2018.
"Geostrategic Nuclear Exports: The Competition for Influence in Saudi Arabia." With Tristan Volpe. War on the Rocks, February 7, 2018.
"What's Really Behind Tom Cotton's Opposition to the Iran Deal." War on the Rocks, October 11, 2017.
"Trump's Criticism of the Iran Deal May Only Lead to More Nuclear Weapons." Washington Post/Monkey Cage, September 25, 2017.
"How North Korea Shocked the Nuclear Experts." With Vipin Narang, Politico Magazine, August 26, 2017.
“Donald Trump Thinks More Countries Should Have Nuclear Weapons. Here’s What the Research Says.” With Gene Gerzhoy, Washington Post/Monkey Cage, April 6, 2016.
"Debunked: Why 5 Criticisms of the Iran Deal Are Wrong." The National Interest, August 12, 2015.
"Why the Iran Deal is a Logical Extension of U.S. Nonproliferation Policy." With Or Rabinowitz, Washington Post/Monkey Cage, April 21, 2015.
"U.S. Nonproliferation Policy is an Invisible Success Story." Washington Post/Monkey Cage, October 16, 2014.
“Primed to Protest.” With Chad Hazlett. ForeignPolicy.com, September 26, 2012.
"Correspondence: What Makes Terrorists Tick." With Erica Chenoweth and Elizabeth McClellan. International Security 33, No. 4 (2009): 180-202.
- Reprinted in Michael Brown, Owen Cote, Jr., Sean Lynn-Jones, and Steven Miller, eds, Contending with Terrorism: Roots, Strategies, and Responses (MIT Press, 2010).